Model effect on projected mortality indicators
|Title||Model effect on projected mortality indicators|
|Publication Type||Working Paper|
|Year of Publication||2012|
|Authors||Debòn, A, Haberman, S, Montes, F, Otranto, E|
|Keywords||block-bootstrap, functional data analysis, mortality indicators|
The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for projecting mortality rates in the US has been a seminal development and has been widely used since then. Different versions of the model, incorporating constraints on the data, and different adjustment methods have led to improvement. All of these changes have increased the complexity of the model with a corresponding improvement in goodness of fit, however, there is little change in the accuracy of forecasts of life expectancy in comparison with the original Lee-Carter model, according to some authors.