The relationship among CO2 emissions, electricity power consumption and GDP in OECD countries

TitleThe relationship among CO2 emissions, electricity power consumption and GDP in OECD countries
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsBella, G, Massidda, C, Mattana, P
JournalJOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING
Volume36
Pagination970–985
Abstract

This paper proposes a panel vector error correction model investigation of a quadratic relationship linking CO2 emissions, GDP levels and electric power consumption. We find that two independent long-run relationships emerge from the data. Since the null of homogeneity across units with regard to long-run elasticities is strongly rejected, we proceed by clustering countries according to the signs of the estimated coefficients. The approach allows us to form three groups: in the first there is evidence of an optimistic scenario, where both CO2 emissions and electric power consumption are bound to decrease in the long-run. An optimistic scenario for emissions reduction is also provided in the second cluster where, however, the long-run relationship between income and electric power consumption shows an U-shaped pattern, instead. Finally, the third cluster can be associated with a much worrying scenario where per capita CO2 is expected to grow with income. A joint consideration of long-run parameters and causality links allows us to propose cluster-tailored policy suggestions.

DOI10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.08.006