Financial Returns, Sentiment and Market Volatility: a Dynamic Assessment

TitleFinancial Returns, Sentiment and Market Volatility: a Dynamic Assessment
Publication TypeWorking Paper
Year of Publication2024
AuthorsBorgioli, S, Gallo, GM, .Ongari, C
Number24_15
ISBN Number978 88 68515 423
KeywordsFinancial market, forecasting, granger causality, sentiment analysis, VAR
Abstract

In 1936, John Maynard Keynes proposed that emotions and instincts are pivotal in decisionmaking, particularly for investors. Both positive and negative moods can influence judgments and decisions, extending to economic and financial choices. Intuitions, emotional states, and biases significantly shape how people think and act. Measuring mood or sentiment is challenging, but surveys and data collection methods, such as confidence indices and consensus forecasts, offer some solutions. Recently, the availability of web data, including search engine queries and social media activity, has provided high-frequency sentiment measures. For example, the Italian National Statistical Institute’s Social Mood on Economy Index (SMEI) uses Twitter data to assess economic sentiment in Italy. The relationship between SMEI and financial market activity, specifically the FTSE MIB index and its volatility, is examined using a trivariate Vector Autoregressive model, taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Citation Key8854
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