Title of paper

The Wage Effects of Immigration and Emigration

Speaker

Giovanni Peri - University of California - Davis

Abstract

Frédéric Docquiera, Çaglar Özdenb, Giovanni Peri

In this paper, we simulate the long-run e¤ects of migrant ‡ows on wages of high- skilled and low-skilled non-migrants in a set of countries using an aggregate model of national economies. New in this literature we calculate the wage effect of emigration as well as immigration. We focus on Europe and compare the outcomes for large Western European countries with those of other key destination countries both in the OECD and outside the OECD. Our analysis builds on an improved database of bilateral stocks and net migration ‡ows of immigrants and emigrants by education level for the years 1990 through 2000. We …nd that all European countries experienced a decrease in their average wages and a worsening of their wage inequality because of emigration. 

Whereas, contrary to the popular belief, immigration had nearly equal but opposite e¤ects: positive on average wages and reducing wage inequality of non-movers. These patterns hold true using a range of parameters for our simulations, accounting for the estimates of undocumented immigrants, and correcting for the quality of schooling and/or labor-market downgrading of skills. In terms of wage outcomes, it follows that prevalent public fears in European countries are misplaced; immigration has had a positive average wage e¤ect on native workers. Some concerns should be focused on the wage e¤ect of emigration, instead.  

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