A SVECM analysis of the relationship between international tourism arrivals, GDP and trade in Italy

TitleA SVECM analysis of the relationship between international tourism arrivals, GDP and trade in Italy
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsMassidda, C, Mattana, P
JournalJOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH
Volume52
Pagination93–105
Abstract

This paper provides a SVEC investigation of long-run, short-run and contemporaneous relationships across per capita international tourism arrivals (ar), real GDP (y) and total international commercial transactions (tr) for the Italian economy. We find that variables span a bi-dimensional cointegrating space which we normalize as long-run relationships between y and ar and between ar and tr. Signs and magnitudes of the estimated elasticities are as expected and compare well with the literature. The causation mechanism shows that none of the variables are weakly exogenous. What we find is that, whereas there appears to be unidirectional long-run causality running from y to tr and from tr to ar, bi-directional causality is detected between y and ar. Structural estimation and a study of the Impulse-Response functions of “meaningful” shocks hitting the economy are used to provide valuable insights for policy and business strategy design

DOI10.1177/0047287512457262
KeywordsSVECM analysis, Tourism arrivals, trade